Sumber : Istimewa
IndonesIa’s economic growth over the past decade has been characterized as subpar quality, or often described as KW2, indicating a lower quality of economic expansion. This growth is frequently attributed to the extensive use of debt, which has become a significant factor in sustaining the economy. As the Prabowo administration prepares to take office, it is imperative that a thorough reassessment of Jokowi’s economic policies is undertaken.
Indonesia, despite its apparent divine favour, demonstrates remarkable resilience in the face of global economic turbulence, ongoing conflicts, escalating debt, frequent cabinet reshuffles, and extensive social aid distributions. The nation’s economic growth has consistently remained within the 4.9% to 5.3% range.
In the writer’s view, Indonesia is perceived as being under divine favour, continuously blessed despite experiencing growth of relatively poor quality. This growth, often described as KW2, is primarily driven by consumption rather than meaningful economic advancement. This has been accompanied by an alarming surge in national debt, which has skyrocketed from Rp2,600 trillion in 2014 to Rp8,338 trillion, an increase of over three times.
As the Jokowi administration draws to a close, President Jokowi appears increasingly disengaged from proactive economic management, relying on cabinet reshuffles and allowing the economy to manage itself. The SBY era was known for its “auto-pilot” approach, where policies were implemented with minimal adjustment. In contrast, the Jokowi era seems characterized by “auto-rejection,” where there is a belief that economic issues will resolve on their own. Despite promises made during his campaign, Jokowi’s administration has fallen short of the targeted 7% economic growth over the past nine years.
The critical question now is whether Indonesia’s divine favour will continue to support its economic growth or if the nation will face further challenges with deteriorating quality, potentially slipping from KW2 to KW3. The incoming Prabowo administration has an essential opportunity to effect significant change by transforming the economy into one that fosters high quality job creation. It's crucial for the younger generation to find employment to avoid middle-income trap and prevent further regression into poverty.
According to a report by Kompas, Gen Z (born 1997 2012) is encountering increasing difficulties in securing jobs within the formal sector. Over the past 15 years, there has been a significant decline in job absorption within this sector. Compared to previous generations, Gen Z faces greater challenges in finding informal sector employment. The second term of the Jokowi administration has seen a continued contraction in job opportunities, exacerbating these difficulties.
Data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) highlights a troubling trend: job absorption in the formal sector fell from 15.6 million people during 2009-2014 to 8.5 million from 2014-2019, and then sharply decreased to just 2 million from 2019-2024. Additionally, the time required to secure employment has lengthened, with recent graduates prolonged periods of joblessness.
Moreover, widespread job losses have become a significant issue, with the Ministry of Manpower (Kemenaker) reporting 45,000 layoffs. As many companies do not report such incidents. Rising prices and persistent food inflation have further intensified the financial strain on the lower middle class.
The Prabowo-Gibran administration faces a critical imperative to implement a comprehensive and forward-thinking development strategy to tackle the multifaceted economic challenges in Indonesia. If the new administration were to adopt a policy approach similar to Jokowi’s, characterized predominantly by the distribution of social aid without addressing the fundamental economic issues, it would likely fall short in significant improvements in job absorption and the economic growth.
While social aid programs can create an appearance of benevolence, the true essence of presidential responsibility lies in crafting and executing policies that drive genuine, sustainable, and high-quality economic development.
To ensure that Indonesia’s economy doesn’t remain stuck in KW2 quality, the Prabowo’s administration must undertake a thorough and critical evaluation of Jokowi’s ineffective policies. It is essential to move beyond superficial measures and focus on providing the impoverished with real opportunities for economic advancement. Preventing the disadvantaged from being left to grapple with issues such as online gambling and rising debt. Instead, the administration must offer pathways to economic stability and prosperity, ensuring that the benefits of economic policies are broadly shared and truly transformative.
Indonesia, despite its apparent divine favour, demonstrates remarkable resilience in the face of global economic turbulence, ongoing conflicts, escalating debt, frequent cabinet reshuffles, and extensive social aid distributions. The nation’s economic growth has consistently remained within the 4.9% to 5.3% range.
In the writer’s view, Indonesia is perceived as being under divine favour, continuously blessed despite experiencing growth of relatively poor quality. This growth, often described as KW2, is primarily driven by consumption rather than meaningful economic advancement. This has been accompanied by an alarming surge in national debt, which has skyrocketed from Rp2,600 trillion in 2014 to Rp8,338 trillion, an increase of over three times.
