Sumber: Istimewa
THE world is looming over an energy crisis. The crisis stemmed from the Strait of Hormuz, which remained closed until last April due to the US-Israel war with Iran, disrupting global energy supplies. Since the war broke out on February 28, 2026, global oil prices have soared over 30% from US$60-70 per barrel. As of this writing, April 23, 2026, Brent crude oil prices have reached US$103 per barrel, while WTI is hovering around US$98 per barrel. Skyrocketing energy prices consistently test the economic resilience of many countries, including Indonesia.
This tough test is already being felt, from state finances or fiscal matters, to corporate balance sheets, and even to the pockets of individuals and households. For The Government, fiscal space, already severely limited by the burden of debt payments, will be even tighter. In the 2026 State Budget (APBN), The Government must repay maturing debt of Rp 833.9 trillion plus interest of up to Rp 599 trillion. This is not to mention priority programs such as the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program, which is budgeted at Rp 335 trillion, a drastic increase from Rp 71 trillion last year. These three budget allocations account for 46% of total government spending of Rp 3,842.7 trillion this year.
Meanwhile, energy subsidies (electricity, gas, and fuel oil/BBM), budgeted at Rp 381.3 trillion, are expected to balloon due to the surge in oil prices, given that 60% of domestic fuel needs are imported. The combination of global uncertainty, negative sentiment, and fiscal policies that appear to prioritize political interests have undermined investor confidence. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has plummeted from 8,748.13 on January 2 to 7,264.89 on April 24, 2026. During the same period, the rupiah exchange rate has weakened further, from Rp 16,668 per USD on January 1 to Rp 17,303 per USD, and is predicted to reach Rp 17,400 by the end of the month.
However, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa claims that the fiscal situation is secure. If oil price pressures persist throughout the year, the state budget still has a buffer from the remaining budget surplus (SAL) of Rp 420 trillion held at Bank Indonesia and state-owned banks. However, stakeholders who must be protected are not only The Government, but also the business community and the public.
Moreover, The Government, unable to withstand the surge in energy subsidies, ultimately shared the burden with the public through fuel price adjustments on April 18, 2026. In fact, logistics and mining businesses were the first to suffer from the increase in industrial diesel (B40) prices to Rp 28,150 per liter on April 1, 2026, and then again to Rp 30,550. However, B40, which is 40% crude palm oil (CPO), is not directly affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and The Government has already received an increase in export taxes from the commodity price increase. The steep increase in B40 fuel has been a “doomsday” for contractors who had previously set a contract budget of Rp 18,000-Rp 20,000 per liter.
The manufacturing sector, which has been bearing the brunt of rising production costs due to the appreciation of the US dollar, has been equally hard hit. Raising product prices is also challenging, as market demand remains very weak. For example, car sales have fallen again after gaining momentum in the first two months of 2026. According to the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo), car sales in March 2026 reached 61,271 units. This figure fell 24.6% compared to the previous month, when it reached 81,250 units in February, and 13.8% compared to the 71,099 units in March 2024. The cumulative growth of cars in the first three months, which was 1.7%, is predicted to reverse to negative.
The consecutive decline in car sales since 2023 is influenced by the depressed middle class, the primary driver of tertiary product consumption. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded that the middle class declined from 57.33 million people (21.45%) in 2019 to 47.85 million people (17.13%) in 2024, a decrease of more than 10 million over five years.
By 2025, the middle class will again decline by 1.1 million to 46.7 million people, as reported by the Mandiri Institute. Above this group is the upper class, which is immune to the crisis but only represents 0.4% of the total population. This will increase by 100 people in 2025 to 1.2 million. Below this group is the aspiring middle class, which will increase from 137.5 million in 2024 to 142.0 million in 2025, equivalent to 50.4% of the total national population.
Below this group, the vulnerable group will also increase from 67.7 million to 67.9 million. This represents 24.1% of the population. Meanwhile, the number of poor people is projected to decline from 25.2 million in 2024 to 23.9 million in 2025, or approximately 8.5% of the total national population. However, using World Bank criteria, the number of poor people in Indonesia reaches 171 million, or 60% of the population.
Even more concerning is the fate of the micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) sector. The MSME sector, typically resilient to all kinds of challenges, is experiencing even greater pressure than larger businesses. Indicators of this are evident in data on bank credit growth over the past few years. According to Infobank Research Bureau (birI), the slowdown in MSME credit began during the former president (Joko Widodo)’s administration in 2014 and has been lower than non-MSME credit growth over the past two years. In 2024, MSME credit grew by only 3.37%, while total commercial bank credit increased by 9.76%.
And for the first time in history, MSME credit contracted in 2025 by 0.27% to Rp 1,505.30 trillion. During the same period, non-MSME credit grew by double digits, resulting in total bank credit growth of 9.75%. In 2020, MSME credit declined, but aggregate banking industry credit also declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, MSME loans fell by 1.73%, lower than the 2.74% decline in banking loans.
Even the king of MSME loans, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), which controls almost half of MSME loans, experienced a decline. Last year, BRI’s credit disbursement to the MSME segment fell 1.88% to Rp 661.28 trillion, while simultaneously achieving 10.43% credit growth to Rp 1,342.67 trillion. Due to its greater expansion in non-MSME loans, BRI’s share of MSME loans decreased from 43.93% in 2024 to 43.37% in 2025.
The decline in MSME loan growth was also accompanied by a decline in quality. In 2025, the gross non performing loan (NPL) of MSME loans reached 4.59%, significantly higher than the overall NPL of 2.12%. Furthermore, MSME loans also show latent pressure, with the potential for a sudden collapse in quality. This is because the position of non performing MSME loans, or those classified as collectible two (under special mention) to collectible five (loss), has reached 50%. Coupled with restructured loans, the loan at risk (LAR) for MSME loans is well above 50%.
The weakening MSME sector will have a ripple effect. The MSME sector is claimed to employ 97% of the workforce and contribute around 60% of gross domestic product (GDP). Due to its crucial role, The Government has been strongly encouraging the advancement of the MSME sector through the People’s Business Credit (KUR) program. Since taking office in October 2024, President Prabowo Subianto has separated the Ministry of Cooperatives and the Ministry of MSMEs to strengthen institutional focus.
However, MSMEs are now facing increasingly challenging times, both due to weakening purchasing power and rising raw material prices. Tragically, the hardships of life stem from one of The Government’s programs, like the MBG program, which has been running since 2025. Prior to the MBG, a daily ecosystem of micro-entrepreneurs had already been established, involving numerous workers, including small traders, school canteens and food stalls, and local food suppliers.
An estimated two million workers were absorbed into this local economic ecosystem. They also contributed to the nation as indirect taxpayers through value-added tax (VAT), levies, and various local levies.
As this sector serves as a buffer against unemployment when large numbers of workers are not absorbed by the formal sector. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the number of informal workers continues to increase from 78.14 million in 2021, 81.33 million in 2022, 83.34 million in 2023, 84.13 million in 2024, and 86.58 million in 2025. This represents 59.40% of the total population employed in the informal sector.
The dominance of the informal sector workforce creates economic vulnerability, reducing the quality of economic growth due to low productivity, limited purchasing power, and low potential tax revenue. At the same time, the MSME sector appears to be abandoned, and its players are now suffering. Amidst the cries of MSME players under pressure from the MBG program, the Financial Services Authority (OJK), as the referee in banking, is encouraging banks to support priority government programs by adjusting the provisions of the Bank Business Plan (RBB).
The OJK’s move has made bankers wary of being “forced” to disburse credit to MBG and the Red and White Village Cooperative (KDMP). Furthermore, there are indications of market distrust in The Government’s programs that are politically motivated and rife with corruption allegations. In fact, calls for withdrawals from state-owned banks have emerged due to the MBG issue, and OJK has revised its statement. “There’s no way The Government or OJK will force banks to disburse credit to priority government programs,” said Dian Ediana Rae, the Chief Executive of Banking Supervision at OJK.
According to Sigit Pramono, a senior banker and former Chairman of the National Commercial Banks Association (Perbanas), banks operating in Indonesia should support The Government’s programs. “But as a banker, I want to remind you that The Government’s programs related to credit do not mean that the credit will default. Therefore, bankers must maintain the principle of prudence, and they must not be careless in disbursing credit simply to comply with orders,” he said at The Asian Post Regional Champion Forum 2026 in Solo on April 17, 2026.
Amidst the threat of an energy and exchange rate crisis, banks must maintain their composure and have the courage to say “no” to orders from The Government to disburse credit. Even if credit is disbursed at The Government’s request, if it subsequently defaults, bankers, especially those from state-owned banks, will be summoned by law enforcement officials. Meanwhile, those who have given the order will be safe and unreachable. The criminalization of non-performing loans, as in the Sritex case, is a clear example. A banker who works in good faith, follows procedures, and adheres to the principle of prudence, can be accused of causing state losses simply because a loan that he/ she previously approved becomes problematic. This is currently being experienced by a number of directors of three regional development banks (BPD), namely Bank DKI, Bank Jateng, and Bank BJB, who are accused of causing the state losses because the credit distributed to Sritex is problematic.
This tough test is already being felt, from state finances or fiscal matters, to corporate balance sheets, and even to the pockets of individuals and households. For The Government, fiscal space, already severely limited by the burden of debt payments, will be even tighter. In the 2026 State Budget (APBN), The Government must repay maturing debt of Rp 833.9 trillion plus interest of up to Rp 599 trillion. This is not to mention priority programs such as the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program, which is budgeted at Rp 335 trillion, a drastic increase from Rp 71 trillion last year. These three budget allocations account for 46% of total government spending of Rp 3,842.7 trillion this year.
